How Canada and the U.S. can still tackle climate change in a second Trump era

U.S. President Donald Trump has once again withdrawn the United States from the Paris agreement on climate change.

There is a palpable sense of fear among environmentalists and those concerned about climate change following Trump’s re-election. His “drill baby drill” support for fossil fuels in the U.S. and frequent criticisms of renewable energy suggest that the world can expect to see a U.S. government that is far less interested in addressing climate change.

In addition to leaving the Paris deal, Trump is likely to peel back the climate change elements of former president Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and disempower the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Trump’s nominee to head the EPA, Lee Zeldin, has promised to “pursue energy dominance.” Meanwhile, Chris Wright, Trump’s choice for energy secretary, is the CEO of Liberty Energy, a fracking company.

While a majority of Americans recognize the dangers of climate change, how they prioritize action to address it tends to fall along partisan lines, with Republican voters seeing a trade-off with economic growth.

Despite the challenges a second Trump administration is likely to bring, Canada can continue to address climate change by working with sub-national leadership in the U.S.

U.S. states still making progress

There are clear indications that Trump will move to dismantle key environmental policies. A dominant Trump adviser, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, has indicated his support for removing US$7,500 tax credits for the purchase of electric vehicles (EVs), apparently viewing it as a way to undermine Tesla competitors.

But this move is opposed by other automakers that have invested billions into developing new supply chains.

Furthermore, dismantling the IRA could undermine Trump’s broader economic agenda. Chinese companies have already leapfrogged their U.S. competitors when it comes to EVs. Biden’s tariffs on Chinese EVs and his promotion of battery supply chains are perfectly compatible with Trump’s own desire to bolster American manufacturing.

However, despite the negative outlook on climate policy at the federal level, several U.S. states have made significant progress. Many American states already have significant and rapidly growing contributions from renewable energy, including Republican-led states such as Iowa and Texas, which generated respectively 60 and 20 per cent of its electricity from wind in 2024.

In addition, 24 American states are projected to reduce net carbon emissions by 27 to 39 per cent by 2030, and 45 states and the District of Columbia have EV support policies. Meanwhile, California and 11 other states have EV mandates.

Globally, solar and offshore wind costs have declined dramatically since 2010 by 89 per cent and 68 per cent, respectively. According to the 2024 levelized cost of energy estimates by financial advisory firm Lazard, onshore wind in the U.S. is fully competitive with natural gas. Utility-level solar is also within the cost range of natural gas.

California’s decision to ban gas cars by 2035 has been supported by automakers, though the deadline remains hotly contested. California has offered the same EV tax credit if the federal one is eliminated.

What Canada should do

Canada must accelerate its own transition to a low-carbon economy by supporting renewable energy initiatives in engineering, construction, transportation and carbon sequestration.

Renewable energy opportunities that align with U.S. interests exist, and can be pursued irrespective of Trump’s policies. For example, Canada has an opportunity, jointly with the U.S., to expand our mutual critical mineral industry.

Electrification is set to proceed apace regardless of the political leanings of governments, and the transformation of transportation from fossil fuels to electricity and battery power will require vast amounts of lithium, a mineral Canada has in large quantities. It will also require large investments in cutting-edge battery technology, which is a key limitation to green electrification.

Canada can play a crucial role in the U.S. critical strategic minerals program. Canada is a critical source of such minerals, and can play a significant role in developing North American EV and battery supply chains.

Considering both the need for these minerals and how tightly integrated the auto industry is in North America, such integration of supply chains fits within Trump’s general goal of reducing reliance on China. Canada can leverage this role to try to ensure it captures key portions of the supply chain that will create good jobs, particularly as oil demand inevitably winds down.

Canada could also be a key partner in expanding nuclear energy production. We understand the resistance many have to this suggestion, but it’s worth reconsidering given the intermittency of renewable energy such as wind and solar.

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Canada is the second-largest producer of uranium in the world. It has experience developing safe nuclear reactors, and technological advances have improved reactive safety and performance in recent decades.

As part of reconciliation efforts, Canada must engage Indigenous Peoples in renewable energy discussions and actions on their own lands. Canadian governments should partner with Indigenous communities to provide them opportunities to ensure that investments in green energy are made appropriately and the benefits are shared fairly.

Lastly, Canada should assist low-income countries to develop appropriate technologies to advance their adoption of renewable energy — think something like a federal renewable energy outreach program.

By taking these steps, Canada could make significant contributions to helping tackle climate change both in North America and around the world.