GPT-5 was supposed to be the model that proved artificial general intelligence (AGI) is within reach. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman hinted as much with a January post on his personal blog. Altman wrote he was “now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it,” adding that 2025 would be the year AI agents “materially change the output of companies.”
Reality hasn’t lived up to Altman’s expectations. Cognitive scientist and AGI skeptic Gary Marcus called GPT-5 “overhyped and underwhelming“ in a Substack post, and the deluge of negative feedback eventually prompted Altman to admit OpenAI “totally screwed up” the launch.
It’s not just GPT-5 in the crosshairs. A recent MIT report on AI in business found that 95 percent of all generative AI deployments in business settings generated “zero return.” The report shook confidence in AI badly enough to drive a minor sell-off in tech stocks, though stock prices have since leveled off. Recent releases from Grok and Anthropic also received a tepid response.
“We are amid a classic hype cycle,” says Juan Graña, CEO of AI company Neurologyca. “AI burst onto the scene with intense buzz, but is now sliding into what Gartner calls the ‘trough of disillusionment,’ where expectations meet reality.”
Is AI Headed Toward a Trough of Disillusionment?
There’s a good chance you know the trough of disillusionment even if you’re not familiar with the term.
The phrase was coined in 1995 as part of a graph Gartner analyst Jackie Fenn used to illustrate how inflated expectations can lead to a period of disillusionment. It quickly caught on and led to countless (and sometimes humorous) variations of the original graph.
Jason Gabbard, co-managing partner at AI consultant Bowtie, says the hype leading up to GPT-5—as well as other AI releases in 2025—was intense. “There have been so many talking heads, the commentary has been all hype for so long, that expectations were high,” says Gabbard. He added that GPT-5’s failure to meet expectations was most sorely felt by smaller organizations and individuals, which hoped “that the next thing out of OpenAI was going to solve all of their problems.”
His comments are echoed by the user-led rebellion that followed in GPT-5’s wake.
As part of the new model’s release, OpenAI removed the earlier GPT-4o model from ChatGPT on the apparent assumption that users would find GPT-5 an upgrade in every situation. Instead, many ChatGPT users complained the new model seemed worse than its predecessor. The criticism caused OpenAI to change course and restore access to GPT-4o just 24 hours after its removal.
It was an embarrassing turn of events for OpenAI. In 2024, Altman predicted that GPT-5 would make GPT-4 feel “mildly embarrassing” by comparison. Instead, user feedback to GPT-5 was so negative that OpenAI decided to restore its predecessor.
Challenges Facing AI Agents in 2025
Read full article: GPT 5’s Rocky Launch Highlights AI Disillusionment
The post “GPT 5’s Rocky Launch Highlights AI Disillusionment” by Matthew S. Smith was published on 09/02/2025 by spectrum.ieee.org