Does cancelling a trip to the U.S. really send a political message, or is it just hurting local tourism?

As the weather warms, many Canadians are turning their attention to travel plans. Whether for spring break or planning summer holidays abroad, people are ready to be on the move after a long winter.

However, temperatures are not the only thing heating up — political tensions between Canada and the United States continue to escalate amid United States President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs. Trump has paused some taxes on Canadian imports until early April.

Trade wars impact the price of goods on both sides of the border and threaten employment and investor confidence. Beyond this, the political situation is also affecting travel intentions and behaviours, not only in Canada and the U.S., but globally.

Tariffs are hurting tourism businesses

Although travel is not directly affected by the American tariffs — such as visa or ESTA fees for Canadians visiting the U.S. — Canadians are reacting strongly to the tariffs and Trump’s threats to make the country the 51st U.S. state.

Emerging data from Statistics Canada indicates that visits to the U.S. began to decline as early as January, and airlines reported that reservations were down. Leisure travel reservations are also significantly down. All this suggests that Canadians are cancelling trips to the U.S.

A new American policy could also affect Canadian travel to the U.S.: as of March 9, some Canadians staying in the U.S. for more than 30 days are now required to register with American authorities under a Protecting the American People Against Invasion executive order introduced by the Trump administration.

Since Canada is the top source of international visitors to the United States, Americans are starting to worry about the impacts of the tariffs on travel.

Canada and the U.S. have one of the closest and most extensive bilateral relationships, and this proximity is reflected in travel. In 2024, 20 million visits from Canada generated $20.5 billion in spending and supported 140,000 American jobs.

There are more flights at Toronto Pearson going to and coming from the U.S. than there are domestic flights to and from Canadian destinations.

Many Canadian tourism businesses, including those in Indigenous communities, are also feeling uncertainty, anxiety and stress about how the tariffs will impact them.

Since tariffs are taxes on imported goods, many businesses will need to adjust by acquiring materials and products from alternate sources. They will need to prepare for increased costs and disruptions in the supply chain by sourcing from local businesses, provinces or even international markets not affected by the tariffs.

Business confidence, U.S. travel are down

It’s not just leisure travellers who are rethinking trips to the U.S. — Canadian businesses are also losing confidence in cross-border travel and trade.

A recent survey by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce found 60 per cent of Ontario business decision-makers lacked confidence in the province’s economic outlook. Eighty per cent said the tariffs had a negative impact on their confidence, with 40 per cent identifying a significantly negative impact.

These sentiments are likely to be common across the country.

A long-term travel boycott would have significant impacts on the American states that are favourite destinations for Canadians, like Florida, New York, California, Washington and Nevada. Meanwhile, other destinations like Mexico and the Caribbean might benefit from redirected tourism spending.

Canadians are also affected by a poor exchange rate between the Canadian and U.S. dollar. It makes travel to the U.S. much more expensive for Canadians, and Canada a bargain for Americans. With more Canadians staying at home and increased spending by Americans in Canada, the trade war could be an opportunity for the Canadian tourism sector.

Are travel boycotts actually effective?

When people are outraged about an issue, boycotting is often a common emotional response. Canadians are being asked to avoid American-made products, but they are not the only ones: Europeans are also increasingly calling for boycotts in response to political tensions with the U.S.

People are using the one tool that is available to them: their power, as consumers, to buy or not buy from certain brands or countries.

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‘Buying Canadian’ is an opportunity to reflect on the ethics of consumerism

Travel boycotts are an increasingly popular tool for businesses and individuals to voice protest and claim social justice against foreign governments or firms.

However, history suggests travel boycotts don’t tend to be very effective at changing policies. They can have an impact on the tourism trade sector, and hurt travel companies on both sides of a conflict, but they have little effect on the overall economy of a country.

For example, in 2022, many countries imposed economic sanctions and travel restrictions against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine. This slowed the Russian economy, of course, but the bans did not succeed in altering Russia’s foreign policy.

Should Canadians keep travelling?

Consumer anger and aspirations for social justice and change will likely continue to generate calls for travel boycotts. However, research has shown travel boycotts often end up harming local tourism businesses more than the politicians or policies they are meant to target.

Rather than expecting to bring about actual political outcomes, many consumers participate in travel boycotts as a way to express their political views and feel good about their convictions.

For Canadians, U.S. tariffs may create a negative perception of travelling south of the border, just as some Americans may find destinations abroad less welcoming. These tensions could ultimately work in Canada’s favour by making it a more attractive alternative for international travellers who might otherwise visit the U.S.

While there are no direct tariffs on the travel and tourism industry, their broader economic impact will likely raise prices of the cost of goods and services across the sector, making travel more expensive in the long run.

The best response may not be to stop travelling altogether, but rather to shift travel choices, whether that means Canadians travelling domestically or Europeans choosing to travel in Canada instead of the U.S.