Why the next 25 years could surpass anything in modern memory | Peter Leyden: Full Interview
Why the Next 25 Years Could Surpass Anything in Modern Memory | Peter Leyden: Full Interview
In an era rife with transformative technologies, Peter Leyden leads us through a compelling exploration of our current historical moment, dubbed “the Great Progression.” As we stand on the threshold of 2025, Leyden argues that innovations in artificial intelligence, clean energy, and bioengineering could birth unprecedented advancements that reshape society fundamentally.
Reflecting on the past, Leyden highlights how previous epoch resets, such as the post-Civil War era and the post-World War II boom, provide valuable lessons as we navigate the challenges of our time. These transitions often involve dismantling outdated systems to make way for new, sustainable frameworks.
Leyden identifies three pivotal tipping points: the rise and potential ubiquity of AI, the rapid scaling of clean energy technologies, and the revolution in biological engineering. Each of these domains presents incredible opportunities for abundance, from democratized access to knowledge and resources to innovations that may redefine food production and healthcare.
However, with progress comes risk, and Leyden cautions against complacency. He posits that as old structures falter, humanity must reinvent itself to channel these technologies toward a vision that works for the majority. As we look to the future, we stand at a crossroads—one that may define the trajectory of civilization for generations.
Join Leyden in this thought-provoking interview as he pivots between cautionary tales and optimistic projections, urging us to seize the moment for transformative change.
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“Old systems of the past are collapsing, and new systems of the future are still to be born. I call this moment the great progression.”
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We are at a tipping point. In the next 25 years, technologies like AI, clean energy, and bioengineering are poised to reshape society on a scale few can imagine.
Peter Leyden draws on decades of observing technological revolutions and historical patterns to show how old systems collapse, new ones rise, and humanity faces both extraordinary risk and unprecedented opportunity.
0:00 We’re on the cusp of an era of progress
0:37 The Great Progression
1:08 What was the ‘Long Boom?’
4:56 How often do these epoch resets happen?
6:12 3 Tipping points
6:39 Artificial Intelligence
7:13 Clean energy technologies
7:32 Biotechnology
9:00 The 80-year cycle
13:27 The Gilded Age
17:50 The Founding Era
22:46 The new enlightenment
32:18 The clean energy revolution
37:13 Bioengineering the genome
39:43 Industrial production vs biological engineering
47:40 What will the future think?
Read the video transcript ► https://bigthink.com/series/full-interview/great-progression-2025/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=youtube_description
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About Peter Leyden:
Peter Leyden is a longtime tech expert and thought leader on the future. He came to San Francisco to work with the founders of WIRED magazine at the beginning of the digital revolution and has followed the front edge of technological change every step since—including into the AI revolution today.
In addition to being an influential writer and author, Leyden is a keynote speaker who has explained the implications of new technologies and the positive possibilities to come to audiences throughout America and Europe on a monthly basis over the last 25 years.
Leyden also founded several startups that pioneered fields transformed by new technologies and currently advises senior leaders in strategic foresight through his company Reinvent Futures.
You can read Peter Leyden’s writing at http://peterleyden.com
About Big Think
Big Think is the leading source of expert-driven, actionable, educational content — with thousands of videos, featuring experts ranging from Bill Clinton to Bill Nye, we help you get smarter, faster. Get actionable lessons from the world’s greatest thinkers & doers. Our experts are either disrupting or leading their respective fields.
Video “Why the next 25 years could surpass anything in modern memory | Peter Leyden: Full Interview” was uploaded on 12/05/2025 to Youtube Channel Big Think



































25:29 Yeah, "Abundance" for the 1%.
Leyden's framing of the transition junctures is crucial: these aren't merely technological shifts but systemic inversions. The observation that the old 20th-century infrastructure is "getting dysfunctional" mirrors the psychology of personal transformation—you don't truly innovate until the status quo becomes more painful than uncertainty. What's profound is recognizing that AI isn't the change itself but the catalyst forcing systemic reckoning. The real question isn't what AI will do, but whether we'll reorganize institutions fast enough to contain the chaos before it reorganizes itself. That's the modern Great Progression.
yeah fuck this guy and his glazed over technobabble bullshit.
AI is not the miracle everyone wants to believe. It is more like an invasive species. It steals information from myriad sources but is not able to discern things that require dissemination, critical thinking, culture, social norms, what is normal for a man or a woman or any social differences. It isn’t the panacea people think it is.
I’m all in favor of bringing back the 90% tax rate on the rich.
Most of our current problems are caues by one thing which also has technological solution, if you use bullshit theft monet you get bullshit economy. All fiat money are just debt schemes, the only difference between any of them is how long it takes to become worthless. And as long as there are people deciding how to devalue the money supply its the same shit as last time.
You will own nothing and be happy.
Good video… Thank you…
Boomers are the problem, they have had it good all their lives and force us into this change like we can afford it, wanted it, or even asked for it. That's the problem!
This is futurology. Future Shock by Alvin Toffler, published back in 1970 also made reasonably prescient predictions for our (by which I mean the West) socio-technological then future. Of course certain things couldn't then be accurately predicted – but most of all, and what is more important, is what isn't predicted that might arise as a consequence of the new technologies. Principally – runaway and unstable knock-on system effects, societal consequences, and the ultimate finiteness of all things (at least in a closed system). The most amazing thing is the totally parochial Western perspective of these types of predictions – what about the other 7.6 billion of humanity, where do they fit in?
Remember guys, always ask progress for whom
46:00 or maybe a bioweapon used to wipe out one-third of the earth within three days without anyone knowing.
It is fascinating to see Leyden apply the 80-year historical cycle theory (often called The Fourth Turning) to technology rather than just war. His timeline is undeniable: 1780s (Founding), 1860s (Civil War), 1940s (WWII), and 2020s (The Great Reset). The most profound insight here is reframing our current political polarization not as the 'end of the republic,' but as the necessary friction of an old operating system being dismantled to make room for a new one. We are living through the 'compost' phase—where old institutions rot to fertilize the new growth. It feels chaotic because it IS chaotic, but historically, this is exactly what precedes a Golden Age.
This Dude has smoked to much Hopi-um…….
I made it as far as growing disposable bottles. This is where I tap out. Positivity in the face of whatever shit awaits us is all good, but blind naiveté does not help.
Some people they invite to this show are very ignorant. People need to be careful listening to idiots like this guy.
Historical review is sensible. The forward looking is clearly rooted in San Fran tech bro culture, which has played a big role in societal breakdown and resisted any regulation in the last decade.
The problem with this guy is that he’s a true believer of a religion. Technology is transformative BUT the process is messy. He left out that writing, the printing press, the telephone, the radio, the TV all preceded the invention of the internet and were all used to create shared narratives via weaponized communication. The internet is a cesspool of misinformation and individualism and does not scale. Now we have AI, being used as weaponized narrators. How do you think that’s going to workout? Based on the comments here, you’re completely out of touch with the material conditions that people are living in and no amount of proselytizing will move the needle. You need a vision for the future that includes the people dummy.
I think a lot of people feel this shift intuitively, not just economically, but psychologically. Even when tech improves, the pressure, uncertainty, and instability seem to rise alongside it. Curious how much of this transition you see as structural vs cultural.
Cows are not inherently bad for the environment. Let’s make it clear the way we raise cows the way we grow. All of our food is indeed inherently bad for the environment, but cows are the problem. It’s the way in which we raise things without regard to the inputs and the externalities, and it’s a system which we manage for financial gain without regard to the embedded materials and energy within the system that is bad for the environment, so let’s just make that one thing very clear but you can believe anything you wanna believe if it justifies the story you wanna tell.
Housing is becoming unaffordable
22:40 China is going to blow America out of the water in the next tech revolution and to think otherwise is total hubris. the damage the trump administration has done to our country will never be fully recovered
Finally something positive about the future.
Yeah, this guy is nothing more than an apologist for the ultra wealthy.
Hope he enjoys licking boot . . .
I know the rest of us would rather kick them down to the level they belong.
Far below us.
I'm going to be 60 next year and when my daughter was younger I remember her one time saying what would you do if you won lotto…. And I told her that we have everything that we really need but what I would love to have is an executive assistant again like when I worked at a Fortune 100 company. And then chat GPT came along and now that's my executive assistant. From copy editing to researching to putting things in alphabetical order for me. I love it….I love technology….. I just don't like spying, lying and cheating…… So I hope there is some oversight.
This is a good introduction video but it is still underestimating the impact of bioengineering. Meat aside (which when it comes to cultured programmable biology can be made more healthy than natural meat) the big impact is going to be transhumanist medical technology.
This means that the next phase of medicine will include regeneration of damaged tissues, production of new organs to replaced damaged/aged ones, cures for multiple types of cancer and early and cheap early detection, and cures for aging as well as bionics that will initially restore capabilities, then augment and finally replace biology. Keep in mind these are not science fiction, these are all technologies currently in the lab and are picking up speed. And whoever brings those to broad access first will lead the world.
what worries me is that the US, and to a lesser extent the EU, are ignoring this field while china is putting the pedal to the metal.
If you ask me, we're already in a sputnik moment this year (china cured diabetes, glued bones, partially reversed aging in macaques without tumorgenesis and managing to trigger near total regeneration in a relatively complex tissue of a mouse's ear pinna, including nerves and blood vessels.)
If you ask me, this should have been the wake up call, to put more effort and funds in education and a targeted R&D program organized, funded and backed by the state to be the first to reach that finish line.
Instead these fields are defunded and more and more people are priced out of higher education while the economy pushes an increasing amount of talented people into a saturated finance and law field that only make things worse as their goal is to increase the feedback loop of hyperaccumulation of wealth in the top, starving the system from the economic fuel it needs to compete.
Great talk, but there is still much work to be done to convince me to drive a Chinese car.
This guy is drunk on his own propaganda
A country is not supposed to be run by Oligarchs..or courts. The courts are there to ONLY decide if a law has been violated or if a Law passed was constitutional or not. They have no standing to define the job of the executive branch. That's why we have a balance of power between Executive, Legislative, and Judicial. The executive is the only branch that is elected by ALL of the American people. Diminishing the power of the executive by corrupt judges is diminishing the power of the American people.
Outstanding!
Interesting but I'm not buying much of it. Making predictions is hard especially about the future.
coolio
such a wise and clever idiot. Telling these great words but from perspective of peace. Yep, AI keeps evolving, but first of all it allows auto-detect and engage the target, better process all kind of data to kill more of your rivals. Yes, everything mentioned will happen, but after very higly possible 3WW. Cheers from Ukraine
Pollyanna
Clean energy is not clean enough. The sun is abundant yes but the material to make solar cells need extracting from the earth's bowels. And you have got GM crops' public perception all wrong. It is still a villain in the public's eye unfortunately. Plus I do feel this is a white person's futurology. You referred to the Global South dismissively at a place. I didn't like it
This is the hopeful yet realistic vision of the future that I’ve been looking for. I’m sharing this with people.
First rule of thumb: Never trust or take at face value anything said or promised by any Silicon Valley technocrat, oligarch or evangelist (of which the clown featured in this vid falls into the third category).
Bring on the bioluminescent flowers to reduce light pollution so we can see the stars again! And create a cool new nocturnal ecosystem
34:43 What?! In 2025, China has been building 2 coal fired power plants a week and that pace is planned to continue. Solar has issues, they have to be cleaned regularly and they take a ton of space and infrastructure support. I’m pro solar on existing structures and covers for parking areas etc.
I share your positive outlook with AI and robotics. Unions and by proxy politicians will be against most of this future innovation. An example is the massive backlog and delay at southern California ports. Almost all major ports have extensive automation and run 24/7. Unions forbid it in CA. 8 hrs maximum per day, all manual labor.
AI doesn’t pay union dues
Robots don’t sue their employer for bad working conditions, sexual harassment, discrimination, job injury, unemployment, etc.
Not much need for attorneys, so they will apply their power to stop it.
Fear is king in the ms media and social media. Plus China has millions of people pushing this fear on line to slow the western world down.