Democracy, climate change and migration – why Poland might be ‘Europe’s fulcrum country’

With Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk moving to suspend the right to asylum in the country, it couldn’t have been more timely for researchers to meet in Warsaw to discuss democracy, migration and climate change.

At Universal Impact, The Conversation’s commercial subsidiary, we’ve partnered with the Independent Social Research Foundation (ISRF) to help them communicate their work to a wider audience. So I joined their latest conference, which took place in the Polish capital last month. And it explored the three interlinked themes of democracy, climate change and migration, raising some uncomfortable questions around the country’s ongoing treatment of refugees.

The three-day event looked at the social and political situation in Poland, which voted out its right-wing government last year and is currently attempting to move its economy away from a traditional reliance on coal towards greener energy.

It’s easy to see how Poland could be seen as “Europe’s fulcrum country”, ISRF Director of Research Chris Newfield suggested on the opening day of the event at the New Orangery in Warsaw’s Royal Łazienki Park.

Early warning system

“Our three topics are locked together in a vicious cycle: migration has been used by political movements to undermine support for democracy,” he added.

“Weakened democracy – a global trend – prevents collective action to address climate change. Unaddressed climate change encourages migration and supports opt-outs from social systems by people who have the money to escape.

“Hardened borders, gated communities, and private islands are the result – and a gross inadequacy of funding to build green infrastructure and ‘big green states’.”

Poland’s history has, in many ways, been shaped by its position at the intersection of Russian and central European power, not least in the Second World War and subsequent standoff between the East and West, which defined the latter half of the 20th century.

And during my visit the war in neighbouring Ukraine was ever present in my mind; Warsaw is around ten hours’ drive from Kyiv and during the conference, jets could be heard passing overhead. At one point, the talks were briefly interrupted by a test of the city’s early warning system.

Poland has welcomed an estimated 1.5 million refugees since the Russian invasion with blue and yellow flags flying proudly in Warsaw’s bars and cafes, and Ukrainian often heard on the city’s buses and trams. But this is only half the story when it comes to the country’s attitude to migration.

An ODI report from last year explained that while opinion polls have historically painted Poland as “one of the societies most favourably disposed towards refugees in Europe”, this changed radically in 2015 with the “development of the so-called European migrant crisis”.

The report goes on to explain that people fleeing Syria and Afghanistan are “not seen as ‘real’ refugees, and are often believed to pose a security threat to the state, while those from Ukraine are viewed as ‘genuine’ refugees who are deserving of support.

When the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party came to power in 2015, some politicians argued that the country should resist EU pressure to take in migrants and make policy decisions based on Polish interests.

Then, in 2021, Russia was accused of orchestrating an operation to encourage migrants to cross the border between Belarus and Poland, promising a safe and straightforward alternative to crossing the Mediterranean by boat.

Poland responded to this form of “hybrid warfare” by introducing a policy of “pushbacks” – forcing migrants to return to the other side of the border. As a result, refugees have been left stranded in the woods without food or water after being refused sanctuary in either country. An estimated 130 people have died at the border with Belarus and its three EU neighbours, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, in the last three years.

This situation is unflinchingly depicted in the latest film from Polish auteur Agnieszka Holland, Green Border, which was screened at the city’s Palace of Culture and Science as part of the conference, with the director taking questions afterwards.

But Tusk’s pro-EU Civic Coalition government, elected in 2023, now seems to be taking a similarly hardline approach to migration as its predecessor. And Tusk’s announcement of plans to suspend the right to asylum, came just days after the conference ended, triggering concerns the measures may break international law.

The ISRF’s mission is to find new solutions to some of today’s most pressing social issues and the conference was not without optimism and valuable insight into how to accelerate the adoption of green technology. Speakers included the University of York’s Martin O’Neill and Christine Oughton from SOAS University of London.

However, if Poland is indeed Europe’s fulcrum nation, then its approach to migration will be worth monitoring for clues about the direction the continent might be heading in, in coming years.